US July CPI 2026 Brief

Bureau of Labor Statistics — Released August 12, 2026 8:30 AM ET (Beijing 20:30)

📊 Verdict: 符合预期 (In Line)

🔺 Core CPI Data

CPI YoY (Headline)

3.4%

Consensus: 3.4% | Previous: 3.5%

Core CPI YoY

2.5%

Consensus: 2.5% | Previous: 2.6%

CPI MoM

0.2%

Consensus: 0.2% | Previous: -0.4%

Color: Red = hotter than expected | Green = cooler than expected | Gray = in line

📈 Market Reaction

S&P 500 Futures

+0.20%

Nasdaq 100 Futures

+0.45%

Dow Futures

+0.09%

VIX

15.32 (-0.6%)

Futures ticked higher after in-line CPI; VIX eased slightly from 15.42 close.

🔧 Semiconductor Sector

Ticker	Price	Change	Notes
NVDA	$218.88	▲ +1.6%	Rebounded from Mon -3% loss; AI buildout partnership news
AMD	$479.25	▼ -7.6%	Recent session decline; CPI in-line may stabilize
MU	$905.79	▲ +1.5%	$1T+ mcap; memory demand strong; Q4 rev guide $50B
AAOI	N/A	▲ +6%+	Optical sector bounce; YTD +390%
COHR	N/A	▼ Mixed	Earnings Aug 12 after close; pre-earnings de-risking
LITE	$820+	▲ Mixed	Q4 earnings beat but $7.2B loss overshadowed; YTD +123%

Data as of Aug 11-12 premarket. COHR reports earnings Aug 12 after close.

🏦 Fed Rate Expectations

Current Fed Funds Rate3.50%–3.75%

Sept Hike Prob (Pre-CPI)~50-57%

Sept Hike Prob (Post-CPI est.)~45-50%

Next FOMC MeetingSeptember 16, 2026

In-line CPI slightly reduces September hike odds. CME FedWatch was ~57% hike before; soft CPI may trim to ~45-50%. JPMorgan expects a 25bp hike in Sept. Fed Chairman Warsh hawkish.

💼 Position Impact

AAOI SHORT 2x @ $135 SL: $155.78 | TP: $120

💡 Optical sector broadly strong (AAOI +6% session). Short under pressure if CPI relief rally extends. Watch SL 155.78.

AMD LONG 5x @ $495 SL: N/A | TP: N/A

💡 AMD down 7.6% recently but in-line CPI removes hawkish surprise risk. Potential stabilization/bounce if broad risk-on.

MU LONG 5x @ $872 SL: N/A | TP: N/A

💡 MU at $905+ (+3.8% from entry). Memory demand fundamentals strong. In-line CPI supportive; rate hike fears easing helps high-beta tech.